Hernán Lacunza warned that Milei's 2026 Budget proposes "macroeconomic illusionism" and casts doubt on debt repayment.

In its latest report, the consulting firm Empiria, led by Hernán Lacunza , analyzed the 2026 Budget that Javier Milei submitted to Congress . According to the former minister, the text marks "the end of the chainsaw" and anticipates that the ruling party will have to enter into a realm of "political bargaining" with governors and legislators.

Lacunza emphasized that the Executive Branch will be forced to negotiate in a complex pre-election scenario, with political and financial tensions eroding the economic program. In his view, the government is seeking to demonstrate pragmatism and consensus, but it is unlikely to achieve progress before the legislative change in December.

The economist harshly questioned the official projections included in the draft. According to Empiria, the Budget proposes GDP growth of 5.4% for 2025, while private estimates are only around 3.7%. For 2026, the government forecasts a 5% expansion, but Empiria reduces this to 3.4%.

The report describes the inflation and exchange rate figures as "macroeconomic illusionism": the government projects a dollar at $1.325 in December 2025, below the current exchange rate, and annual inflation of 40.3% . For Empiria, these figures are simply implausible.

On the fiscal front, the consulting firm noted that the project forecasts a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP and a financial surplus of 0.3%. Total spending would even grow slightly, in areas such as education (up 8% in real terms), health care (up 17%), and social security (up 5%) . "There are no tax cuts in sight," warns Lacunza, implying that there is no room for relief for the private sector.

Subsidies, on the other hand, would fall by 0.2 percentage points of GDP, while transfers to universities would remain at around 0.5% of GDP. The government is aiming to maintain this balance with increased revenue from income tax, fuel, and imports.

The most critical issue for Empiria is financing. According to the analysis, the country will face US$18 billion in maturities in 2026, of which US$10 billion corresponds to private loans. In January alone, US$4.5 billion will be due. Added to this is the US$128 trillion domestic debt in pesos, equivalent to 11.2% of GDP.

"The government is relying on debt capitalized in pesos, the interest on which is not recorded in the fiscal result, which allows it to show an apparent surplus," warns Lacunza. For the former minister, the rise in country risk and exchange rate tensions already reflect growing market doubts about the government's ability to meet these commitments.